Monday, April 26, 2010

Inflation is back. Plus, New homes inventories decline.

New Home Inventories Plummet


New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsMonths of supply declined to 6.7 in March from 8.6 in February. This is significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January 2009, but still higher than normal.

New home sales are counted when the contract is signed, so this pickup in activity is probably related to the tax credit. Note that that a few thousand extra sales NSA in March

It's Baaaaack! (Inflation)


From the Leggett & Platt earnings call:
Karl Glassman - Leggett & Platt, Incorporated - EVP, COO
“…If there is a difference today, it is the magnitude and the variety of inflation. From our finished bedding and furniture customers' standpoint not only are they getting it from steel but they are seeing it -- everything petrochemical-based.

“So they are getting foam increases, fiber increases. The leather guys are seeing huge inflation in hides. Cardboard. All the MDFs [medium-density fiberboards]. So it is a challenge.

“Historically the retailers have said to the manufacturing customers, we won't let you pass through. Our manufacturer customers are in a squeeze. They have to pass it through at retail. The magnitude and the velocity of this, retail has to move this time.”

MONDAY, APRIL 19, 2010

Taxes Witheld by Govt Abysmal


Below is an update of the most recent US Treasury tax withholding picture. As one can very plainly see it is getting worse, on both a week over week, a YTD cumulative basis, and, probably most relevantly to some readers, on a 4 week running bucket cumulative basis. In the week ended April 16, the US Treasury collected $29.3 billion, 10% less than the comparable week in the prior year when $32.5 billion was withheld. Cumulatively, the difference is now at an almost 2010 high, hitting a $16.7 billion difference between the YTD period and the comparable period in 2009 (only highest cum total was in Week 2).

SATURDAY, APRIL 17, 2010

Is there something coming up in November?

Christina Romer says economy "very far from normal"

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