Tipping Points:
STATISTICS FROM THE US GOVT.
(Billions)
US GDP 2010: $14,620
US Gross Debt: $12,464
US Official (net) Debt 2010 $9,300, as % of GDP: 64%
Gross Federal Debt: $12,450: as a % of GDP: 85%
State &Local debt: $2,200, (approx)
US Deficit 2010: $1,556, as % of spending: 42%
US interest expense: $310, as a % of Federal Revenues: 17%
US interest expense including FUNDED Social Security and
Medicare is $310, or 17% of Federal Revenues. We should use this figure, because this is money that is has been spent already, but is still owed for entitlements.
Federal Interest Costs/Federal Revenues: 17% .The Tipping Point is 30%.
USA Gov deficit as % of expenditures: 42%. The Bernholz definition of the tipping point is 40%.
USA Gov Debt (net)/GDP: 64% (Gross debt is 85% which includes SS & M-care non funded obligations). Tipping Point is 90-100% as defined by Rogoff & Reinhart. There is an additional $440bn of GSE debt in default that could also be added. The current gross debt ceiling, which will be breached in 12 months, is $14.3Tn.
Protectionism Meter: 5.5 on a scale of 10. Rising trend. Premier Wen's speech.
Federal Reserve QE post March 2010 status: TBD
Official Debt is borrowings held by the public.
Gross debt includes SS and Medicare trust funds.
Interest on Gross Debt is paid by the Govt to itself.
