Macquarie China Lunch Meeting - Interesting
China growth will slow to target of 8% in 2011.
Population demographics a big long term issue, will grow old before it gets rich.
Investment still high at 45% of growth, but dropping as a percent of growth from here on.
Consumption = 45% of growth, and will have effect of slowing growth going forward.
Real estate: high end bad, will add lots more low ends.
Urbanization: 350mm to move to cities in next 10 yrs!!!
Current PROJECTS of govt spending = 75% of GDP (not all spent in one year of course).
China captures little of value added of its exports.
"Branded China" is a big focus of govt.
SOEs will increasingly internationalize.
China will not crash, lending is being slowed (9tn to 7tn) but SPENDING isn't.
Environment: Conflict btwn Nat'l mandates and local govt realities.
Local Environmental police love polluters, fines a big source of income, ergo they don't close them.
Cars: emission standards now higher than USA.
China started rapid growth at a much lower GDP/capita ($700) vs. Taiwan and Japan and Korea ($1.75k).
When the rapid growth phases ended for the above countries GDP/Capita was $13,000
Population demographics a big long term issue, will grow old before it gets rich.
Investment still high at 45% of growth, but dropping as a percent of growth from here on.
Consumption = 45% of growth, and will have effect of slowing growth going forward.
Real estate: high end bad, will add lots more low ends.
Urbanization: 350mm to move to cities in next 10 yrs!!!
Current PROJECTS of govt spending = 75% of GDP (not all spent in one year of course).
China captures little of value added of its exports.
"Branded China" is a big focus of govt.
SOEs will increasingly internationalize.
China will not crash, lending is being slowed (9tn to 7tn) but SPENDING isn't.
Environment: Conflict btwn Nat'l mandates and local govt realities.
Local Environmental police love polluters, fines a big source of income, ergo they don't close them.
Cars: emission standards now higher than USA.
China started rapid growth at a much lower GDP/capita ($700) vs. Taiwan and Japan and Korea ($1.75k).
When the rapid growth phases ended for the above countries GDP/Capita was $13,000
No comments:
Post a Comment