May 30, 2010 - BEA Lowers 1st Quarter GDP Estimate as the Consumer Metrics Institute Previews 3rd Quarter GDP:
On May 27th the BEA released its first revision to its 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate measurement, lowering the number from a 3.2% annualized growth rate to 3.0% annualized growth. One day later the Consumer Metrics Institute's 'Daily Growth Index' was signalling what we should expect the BEA's measurement of the 3rd Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate to be: contracting at about a 2.0% rate.
The prior BEA estimate of 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth trailed our 'Daily Growth Index' by 127 days, and because of the rapid rate that the economy was cooling when the measurements were being made the newly adjusted estimate is now trailing our 'Daily Growth Index' by 125 days. Since the 3rd Quarter of 2010 ends 125 days after May 28th (when our 'Daily Growth Index' was recording a 'growth' rate of -1.99%), if the BEA estimates continue to trail our 'Daily Growth Index' in a consistent manner we should expect that the 3rd Quarter's GDP 'growth' rate will be in the -2.0% neighborhood.
On May 27th the BEA released its first revision to its 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate measurement, lowering the number from a 3.2% annualized growth rate to 3.0% annualized growth. One day later the Consumer Metrics Institute's 'Daily Growth Index' was signalling what we should expect the BEA's measurement of the 3rd Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate to be: contracting at about a 2.0% rate.
The prior BEA estimate of 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth trailed our 'Daily Growth Index' by 127 days, and because of the rapid rate that the economy was cooling when the measurements were being made the newly adjusted estimate is now trailing our 'Daily Growth Index' by 125 days. Since the 3rd Quarter of 2010 ends 125 days after May 28th (when our 'Daily Growth Index' was recording a 'growth' rate of -1.99%), if the BEA estimates continue to trail our 'Daily Growth Index' in a consistent manner we should expect that the 3rd Quarter's GDP 'growth' rate will be in the -2.0% neighborhood.
THURSDAY, MAY 27, 2010
WEDNESDAY, MAY 26, 2010
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2010
Stimulus Impact on the Economy - CBO
| Change Attributable to ARRA, GDP change (percent) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Estimate | High Estimate | ||
| 2009 | Q1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 2009 | Q2 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | Q3 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | Q4 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 2010 | Q1 | 1.7 | 4.2 |
| 2010 | Q2 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| 2010 | Q3 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| 2010 | Q4 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
No comments:
Post a Comment